Showing 1 - 10 of 15,731
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U … jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a similar … forecasts for particular age classes. A structural analysis of the relationship between age-specific mortality and covariates is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005784846
This paper presents one of the inflation forecasting models used by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank in its recent inflation forecasts. The model attempts to integrate all the properties of the former models considered by the author as being advantageous and desirable into a unified framework. Thus, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005178279
In this paper, we show how to estimate the parameters of stochastic volatility models using Bayesian estimation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations through the approximation of the a-posteriori distribution of parameters. Simulated independent draws are made possible by using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010765774
Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005103392
Macroeconomic practitioners frequently work with multivariate time series models such as VARs, factor augmented VARs as well as time-varying parameter versions of these models (including variants with multivariate stochastic volatility). These models have a large number of parameters and, thus,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008487526
Mortality risk models have been developed to capture trends and common factors driving mortality improvement. Multiple … is necessary to take into account the richer age structure of mortality improvement from young ages to middle and then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551692
for the obtainment of a mortality table when is not had sufficient information for their/its/your/his direct calculation … of the population of interest before the demographic fact mortality. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005690340
and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence … explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and … hence quantify the costs of providing for future ageing populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206890
Accurate estimates of future age-specific incidence and mortality are critical for allocation of resources to breast … techniques to model age-specific breast cancer mortality time trends, and forecast entire age-specific mortality function using a … state-space approach. We use yearly unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates in Australia, from 1921 to 2001 in 5 year age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149044
When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term …. We propose a method for non-divergent or coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838043