This paper briefly reviews the IMF’s current practices and policy-making in the context of a proposed quadrupling of IMF resources to $1 trillion dollars, and a consequent increase in the Fund’s influence over economic policy-making in developing countries. It finds that the IMF is still...

This chapter investigates the effect of the exchange regime on the likelihood of sudden stops. A panel probit analysis is conducted on the data of 43 developing countries from 1980 to 2010. The test investigates the interaction of surges and the exchange regime and their potential impact of the...

This paper argues that developing countries have limited arsenal at the national level to manage financial instability. The solutions have to be sought mainly at the multilateral level and these include: provision of adequate international liquidity at appropriate terms for current account...

The global economic crisis have important implications for international capital movements, which further sharpens the question of the sustainability of permanent current account deficits in Southeast Europe. The goal of this paper is to analyse the medium-and long-term sustainability of...

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the...

This paper studies the ability of external imbalances to indicate subsequent exchange rate returns. We propose a simple twist of the Gourinchas and Rey (2007) approximation to the intertemporal budget constraint which is valid for countries that are net creditors (or net debtors) consistently...

We embed a small open economy model for Colombia into the global risk model of Gómez-Pineda, Guillaume, and Tanyeri (2014). The small open economy model is estimated by Bayesian methods and used for analysis and projections. The model enable us to give a consistent treatment of shocks to global...

The euro zone crisis illustrates the insufficiency of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, they are very few alternative mechanisms. This situation reflects a simple diagnosis. At the level of the whole euro...

This paper examines two measures of the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Macroeconomic Balance (MB) and the Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX) approaches. Unlike previous studies, this study controls for business cycle effects and the debt sustainability position of countries on the...

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analyzed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard...