We propose a critical review of recent developments in exchange rate economics which have offered a novel approach to exchange rate determination. This new strand of research, the market microstructure approach to exchange rates, is motivated by some very stark empirical evidence, relating...

We discuss how Whittle's (Whittle, 1990) approach to risk-sensitive optimal control problems can be applied in economics and finance. We show how his analysis of the class of Linear Exponential Quadratic Gaussian problems can be extended to accommodate time-discounting, while preserving its...

In this paper we characterize the preferences of a pessimistic social planner concerned with the potential costs of extreme, low-probability climate events. This pessimistic attitude is represented by a recursive optimization criterion à la Hansen and Sargent (1995) that introduces...

Recent research has highlighted the role that the government budget constraint plays in determining the consumer price level. According to the fiscal approach to price determination, prices adjust so that the discounted value of future real government primary surpluses equals the current real...

We propose a simple structural model of exchange rate determination which is inspired by the analytical framework recently forward by Bacchetta and van Wincoop (2006) and allows us to disentangle the portfolio-balance and information effects of order flow on exchange rates. We estimate this...

Using a market microstructure analytical framework we decompose the FX forward discount bias into elements due to time-varying risk premia (related to EBS order flow) and forecast errors derived using the Reuters survey of FX market participants. We find that both elements are significant...

We formulate a market microstructure model of exchange determination we employ to investigate the impact of foreign exchange intervention on exchange rates and on foreign exchange (FX) market conditions. With our formulation we show i) how foreign exchange intervention in°uences exchange rates...

Within a simple model of monetary policy for an open economy, we study how foreign exchange intervention may be used to condition agents' beliefs of the objectives of the policymakers. Differently from cheap talk foreign exchange intervention guarantees a unique equilibrium. Foreign exchange...