We use wavelet tools and Economic Sentiment Indicators to study the synchronization of economic cycles in the Euro Area. We assess the time-varying and frequency-varying pattern of business cycles synchronization in the Area and test the impact of the creation of the European Monetary Union in...

This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries’ business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycles correlation trying to disentangle between regional spillover effects (expansion and recession phases among the ASEAN-5 are correlated) and global spillovers...

We estimate a medium scale DSGE model for the Euro Area to gain intuition on the importance of Limited Asset Market Participation (LAMP). Our results suggest that LAMP is sizeable (39% of households over the 1993-2012 sample) and important to understand EMU business cycle, especially, in the...

Este artículo estudia la interacción entre el ciclo económico y el mercado del crédito. Nuestra evidencia señala que los períodos de expansión económica gatillan en el mediano plazo, primero, aumentos de la cartera vencida, y luego, reducciones del crédito. Interpretamos este fenómeno...

The two-dimensional circular structure model by Kauermann, Teuber, and Flaschel (2011) will be extended to estimate more than two time series simultaneously. It will be assumed that the multivariate time series follow a cycle over the time. However, the radius and the angle are allowed to...

The economic activity indicators in Poland during the years 1995-2011 exhibit various cyclical patterns. Employing the Christiano – Fitzgerald band-pass filter and unobserved components model it is shown that the cyclical processes of Polish economic activity are driven by overlapping higher...

This paper models uctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonsta- tionary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate uctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state| regardless of...

We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in the U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics amongst unemployment rates disaggregated for 7 age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic...

The cyclical behaviour of prices in the U.K. is investigated using a sample of annual observations covering the period 1886-1993. A structural time series model relating consumer prices to output is estimated over four sub-periods. The results indicate that prices were procyclical in the...