TWe estimate a structural model of herding behavior in which feedback arises due to mutual concerns of traders over the unobservable "true" level of market liquidity. In a herding regime, random shocks are exacerbated by endogenous feedback, producing a dampened power-law in the fluctuation of...

Tails in the distribution of JPY/USD exchange rate returns are well approximated by an exponentially dampened power-law. Distribution parameter estimates indicate that yen appreciation jumps belong to a Levy process with unbounded variation, suggesting that same mechanism may be responsible for...

Loan syndication increases bank interconnectedness through co-lending relationships. We study the financial stability implications of such dependency on syndicate partners in the presence of shocks to banks' capital. Model simulations in a network setting show that such shocks can produce rare...

Using a simultaneous-move herding model of rational traders who infer other traders' private information on the value of an asset by observing their aggre- gate actions, this study seeks to explain the emergence of fat-tailed distributions of transaction volumes and asset returns in financial...

This paper presents a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model of income and firm-size distributions. The size and value of firms result from idiosyncratic, firm-level productivity shocks. CEOs can invest in their own firms’ risky stocks or in risk-free assets, implying that the CEO’s...

This study demonstrates that the interactions of firm-level indivisible investments give rise to aggregate fluctuations without aggregate exogenous shocks. When investments are indivisible, aggregate capital is determined by the number of firms that invest. I develop a method to derive the...

Using a simultaneous-move herding model of rational traders who infer other traders' private information on the value of an asset by observing their aggre- gate actions, this study seeks to explain the emergence of fat-tailed distributions of transaction volumes and asset returns in financial...

In science, research teams are increasing in size, which suggests that science is becoming more organisational. This paper aims to empirically investigate the effects of the division of labour in management and science on serendipity, which has been considered one of the great factors in...

Personal income distributions in Japan are analyzed empirically and a simple stochastic model of the income process is proposed. Based on empirical facts, we propose a minimal two-factor model. Our model of personal income consists of an asset accumulation process and a wage process. We show...

This paper investigates the aggregate fluctuations in production and demand components when a firm's investment decision takes the form of (S,s) policies. In the field of large-dimensional non-linear dynamical systems, it is a commonly accepted view that a system of coupled non-linear...