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In this paper we propose the prognosis of the unemployment rate in the European Union through the Box-Jenkins method and the TRAMO/SEATS method as well as the detection of the method which proves to provide the best results. The monthly unemployment rate in the European Union is affected by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005091151
We introduce the notion of relative volatility/intermittency and demonstrate how relative volatility statistics can be … used to estimate consistently the temporal variation of volatility/intermittency even when the data of interest are … Ito semimartingales and discuss how it can be used for inference on relative volatility/intermittency. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851213
The consistent ranking of multivariate volatility models by means of statistical loss function is a challenging … research field, because it concerns the quality of the proxy chosen to replace the unobserved volatility, the set of competing … realized covariance (RCOV), the proxy that generally provides a consistent estimate of the unobserved volatility. The aim of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860339
We propose a comprehensive treatment of the leverage effect, i.e. the relationship between returns and volatility of a … estimating the volatility process without assuming any specific form of its behavior, we find the volatility to be long … returns and volatility is detected as the long-term cross-correlated one. These findings can be further utilized to enhance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010939442
analyze empirical results for a selection of existing realized measures of volatility and incorporate them in a Realized GARCH … framework for the joint modeling of returns and realized measures of volatility. An influential bias in these measures is … over time, which stresses the importance of careful modeling and forecasting of volatility. We show that improved model fit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010945126
In the article one tried to answer many questions about the money flow between stock exchanges. One reflected if stock markets are a communicating vessels system, if there succeed an escape from one stock exchange to another, if in different periods more lost on the stock markets small, big or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011271652
Forecasts of asset return volatility are necessary for many financial applications, including portfolio allocation …. Traditionally, the parameters of econometric models used to generate volatility forecasts are estimated in a statistical setting and … paper investigates the economic benefit of direct utility based estimation of the parameters of a volatility model and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005015195
This paper studies the presence of structural breaks in the capital flows of sixteen economies of Latin America using the unit test root by Zivot and Andrews (1992). It is complemented by the structural breaks test by Bai Perron (1998). Afterwards, an analysis of the likelihood of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010607798
The ranking of multivariate volatility models is inherently problematic because when the unobservable volatility is … the size of the distortion is strictly tied to the level of the accuracy of the volatility proxy. We propose a generalized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608475
industries. Previous literatures show that volatility of stock prices is informative; Granger causality is applied in this … volatility. The results indicate that causality of the volatility of the Utilities industry on the volatility of seven other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010812029