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Forecasting Industry Employment for a Resource-Based Economy Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models

Seung, Chang K.; Ahn, Sung K. - In: The Review of Regional Studies 40 (2010) 2, pp. 181-96

Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models are developed to forecast industry employment for a resource-based economy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010547715

A Rank-Order Test on the Statistical Performance of Neural Network Models for Regional Labor Market Forecasts

Patuelli, Roberto; Longhi, Simonetta; Reggiani, Aura; … - In: The Review of Regional Studies 37 (2007) 1, pp. 64-81

Using a panel of 439 German regions, we evaluate and compare the performance of various Neural Network (NN) models as forecasting tools for regional employment growth. Because of relevant differences in data availability between the former East and West Germany, the NN models are computed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010547790

An Inflation Forecasting Model for the Euro Area.

Chauvin, V.; Devulder, A. - Banque de France - 2008

commonly used to forecast short-term price developments. On the whole, the model provides more accurate forecasts than those … provided by the autoregressive model, and a sector-based disaggregated approach outperforms a single equation to forecast total … econometric characteristics and forecast performance of the equations of our model. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528512

Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches

Arranz, M. - Econometria, Facultade de Ciencias Económicas e … - 1996

Our analysis was performed with data from 10 EEC countries in the period 1962-86 and is devoted to the changes in the structure of private consumption with respect to eight commodity groups. We began with eleven different approaches from which we chose four. In turn we then compared them with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005618411

Finding Good Predictors for Inflation: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Jacobson, Tor; Karlsson, Sune - Sveriges Riksbank - 2002

We consider a Bayesian Model Averaging approach for the purpose of forecasting Swedish consumer price index inflation using a large set of potential indicators, comprising some 80 quarterly time series covering a wide spectrum of Swedish economic activity. The paper demonstrates how to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649094

Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise

Nowicka-Zagrajek, Joanna; Weron, Rafal - Hugo Steinhaus Center for Stochastic Methods, … - 2002

In this paper we address the issue of modeling and forecasting electricity loads. We apply a two-step procedure to a series of system-wide loads from the California power market. First, we remove the weekly and annual seasonalities. Then, after analyzing properties of the deseasonalized data we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009003632

Medienberichte als Konjunkturindikator

Grossarth-Maticek, Jan; Mayr, Johannes - In: Ifo Schnelldienst 61 (2008) 07, pp. 17-29

Die Studie untersucht, in wie weit neben den klassischen monatlichen Konjunkturindikatoren, wie dem ifo Geschäftsklimaindex, der Industrieproduktion oder den Auftragseingängen in der Industrie, auch die Medienberichterstattung über die konjunkturelle Entwicklung selbst als Indikator der...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005055795

Evaluating the performance of VaR models in energy markets

Zikovic, Sasa; Weron, Rafal; Zikovic, Ivana Tomas - Hugo Steinhaus Center for Stochastic Methods, … - 2014

In this paper we analyze the relative performance of 13 VaR models using daily returns of WTI, Brent, natural gas and heating oil one-month futures contracts. After obtaining VaR estimates we evaluate the statistical significance of the differences in performance of the analyzed VaR models. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933623

Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails

Diks, Cees; Panchenko, Valentyn; Dijk, Dick van - Tinbergen Instituut - 2008

This discussion paper led to a publication in the 'Journal of Econometrics', 2011, 163, 215-230.<P> We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the...</p>

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255794

Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns

Raunig, Burkhard; de Raaij, Gabriela - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2002

forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other approaches. In simulation experiments and an empirical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083070

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