We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...

We propose a hierarchical Marshall–Olkin model of countrywide systemic risk. At the lower level, we model the systemic risk of a crisis within the banking system (that we call “within” systemic risk) and at the higher level we model the probability of a joint default of the banking system...

We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an...

The 2008-09 global economic crises have shown that no country is immune to external challenges. When policy controls are missing or not used efficiently, crises can reverse progress even in advanced economies. This unexpected outcome has increased concerns about the ability of governments in...

The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between financial and economic uncertainty (risk) and the demand for international reserves. In addition, the association between this relationship and the political risk condition is further analysed for selected emerging economies....

This paper is a reinterpretation of the work done of the authors several years ago and it underlines the political risk of the countries that are member of the EU11 (European Union segmented at 11 countries that have geographical and strategic similar positioning) zone shaped by the World Bank...

This presentation discusses the use of incentives to foster innovation in the private sector. It includes a discussion of supporting and funding R&D in the business sector; the use of tax incentives for R&D; and a comparison of other financing instruments. This presentation was presented at the...