A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow is modelled by a random variable that can be expressed...

A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the corresponding price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow is modelled by a random variable that can...

We consider a financial contract that delivers a single cash flow given by the terminal value of a cumulative gains process. The problem of modelling and pricing such an asset and associated derivatives is important, for example, in the determination of optimal insurance claims reserve policies,...

This paper presents an overview of information-based asset pricing. In this approach, an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. The market is assumed to have access to "partial" information about future cash flows. Each cash flow is determined by a collection of independent market factors...

We propose a model for the credit markets in which the random default times of bonds are assumed to be given as functions of one or more independent "market factors". Market participants are assumed to have partial information about each of the market factors, represented by the values of a set...

Associated with every positive interest term structure there is a probability density function over the positive half-line. This fact can be used to turn the problem of term structure analysis into a problem in the comparison of probability distributions, an area well developed in statistics,...

An asymmetric information model is introduced for the situation in which there is a small agent who is more susceptible to the flow of information in the market than the general market participant, and who tries to implement strategies based on the additional information. In this model market...

The geometric L\'evy model (GLM) is a natural generalisation of the geometric Brownian motion model (GBM) used in the derivation of the Black-Scholes formula. The theory of such models simplifies considerably if one takes a pricing kernel approach. In one dimension, once the underlying L\'evy...

The space of probability distributions on a given sample space possesses natural geometric properties. For example, in the case of a smooth parametric family of probability distributions on the real line, the parameter space has a Riemannian structure induced by the embedding of the family into...

In this paper we examine inefficiencies and information disparity in the Japanese stock market. By carefully analysing information publicly available on the internet, an `outsider' to conventional statistical arbitrage strategies--which are based on market microstructure, company releases, or...