On 4 March 2011, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and the National Bank of Poland jointly organised a conference on the theme of: "Monetary Policy after the Crisis". Following a call for papers with a large number of submissions, the scientific committee selected 9 papers, which...

This paper assesses if a Bayesian VAR with a Dornbusch prior outperforms the random walk model in predicting real exchange rates. Our main contributions are twofold. First, from a methodological point of view we apply an innovative framework to estimate structural Bayesian VAR models. Second, we...

This paper introduces a formal method of combining expert and model density forecasts when the sample of past forecasts is unavailable. It works directly with the expert forecast density and endogenously delivers weights for forecast combination, relying on probability rules only. The empirical...

For a central bank knowledge of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is a prerequisite for achieving its final goal, i.e. price stability. Therefore, this area of analyses and research is of key importance for central banks, including Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP). Every two years since 2011,...

This paper presents survey-based direct measures of inflation expectations of consumers, enterprises and financial sector analysts in Poland. It then goes on to provide the results of testing those features of inflation expectations that seem the most important from the point of view of monetary...

In the light of the results of empirical studies presented in the Report and the literature available45 it may be concluded that the form of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland is consistent with structural features of the Polish economy and coincides with those characteristic...

The paper provides an overview of the literature on the role of monetary aggregates for conducting monetary policy and attempts to assess the role of these aggregates in the Polish monetary policy. We compare theoretical and empirical arguments which justify or undermine the need for usage of...

In this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP...

Monetary transmission mechanism is in the core of central banking. Its understanding however seems to be especially important within direct inflation targeting strategy. In particular, it facilitates the adequate setting of headline interest rates, consistent with declared objectives of the...