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unemployment and monetary policy in a small open economy such as Sweden. Third, we do not want to overburden Swedish monetary … the Phillips curve based on constant inflation expectations has returned for Sweden. Based on estimates of this model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011019080
Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the real and monetary sides of the economy; yet, direct empirical research on the matter has been scarce at best. This paper therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700546
This paper evaluates the role of inflation-forecast heterogeneity in US monetary policy making. The deviation between private and central bank inflation forecasts is identified as a factor increasing inflation persistence and thus calling for a policy reaction. An optimal policy rule is derived...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005523534
In countries with credible inflation targeting, it seems plausible to suggest that instead of forming a rational expectation, some firms (inflation-targeters) might simply expect future inflation to always equal its target. This paper analyses the implications of this for optimal monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005090687
This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210
There is no Phillips curve in the United States, i.e. unemployment does not drive inflation at any time horizon. There … is a statistically robust anti-Phillips curve - inflation leads unemployment by 10 quarters. Apparently, the anti … not reject the hypothesis that there exist a long-term equilibrium relation between inflation and unemployment in the US …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005621243
, under the current mandate the U.S. has experienced low inflation and low unemployment, while many inflation …-targeting countries have experienced double-digit unemployment. Second, the costs of unemployment are substantial while the costs of …, if the price level is not free to adjust, an adverse supply shock can cause large increases in unemployment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005641686
The main objective of this study is to investigate the long run trade-off between unemployment and inflation in Egypt … analysis confirm a positive relationship between changes in inflation rate and unemployment gap in the long run, which is … consistent with “Locus Critique” where a policy of inflation would fail to reduce the unemployment rate in the long run, because …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108182
target, the long-run Phillips curve becomes nonvertical. During 1997-2011, average inflation expectations in Sweden have been … unemployment rate has been about 0.8 percentage points higher than if average inflation had been on target. This is a large … unemployment cost of undershooting the inflation target. (JEL D84, E24, E31, E52, E58) …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107229
The first 10 years of Czech Republic's inflation targeting regime have been remarkable by the persistent undershooting of the inflation targets. This article is an introduction to a special issue aimed at analyzing the factors of the undershooting. The articles in this issue explore the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005673578