Mit Konjunkturprognosen wird auf hochaggregierter Ebene die Entwicklung der Wirtschaft im jeweils laufenden und im darauffolgenden Jahr vorausgeschätzt. Im Mittelpunkt stehen Aussagen über Tempoänderungen und Wendepunkte von makroökonomischen Variablen im zyklischen Wirtschaftsgeschehen....

Recent experience of the great recession of 2008 has renewed one of the oldest debates in economics: whether economics could ever become a scientific discipline like physics. This paper proves that economics is truly a branch of physics by establishing for the first time a fundamental equation...

As economic conditions in the United States have faltered, the impact on the Mexican economy has been negative. The short-term consensus projections for Mexico reflect this and suggest that the downturn is not likely to loosen its grip on the Mexican economy until the second half of 2009 or even...

As society changes and patterns of economic development – across regions, countries, markets, companies and other organizations – become more complex and intricate, there is a general wish for reliable and valid indicators of what is going on and where economic development is heading. <p> This...</p>

This work investigates different kinds of models for economic time series and compares the ability of these models to fit the observed data and their predictive power in the short term, both for single-series models and for multivariate models. Both capabilities are analyzed and classified...

An outline of what would be ideally needed for a comprehensive set of national accounts is given. National governments and international agencies ought ideally to go even beyond green national accounts. Unfortunately though, that ideal cannot be met, at least not in the near future....

Recent experience of the great recession of 2008 has renewed one of the oldest debates in economics: whether economics could ever become a scientific discipline like physics. This paper proves that economics is truly a branch of physics by establishing for the first time a fundamental equation...

ILO pub-WEP pub. Working paper presenting an econometric model for economic forecasting of population, labour force, educational levels and employment in developing countries, as applied to Ecuador - describes the labour market models use in making projections of labour supply, labour demand,...

ILO pub-WEP pub. Working paper on the effects of petroleum price increases on employment and income distribution in the Sudan - gives economic forecasts up to 1990; examines gross domestic product, economic conditions, indigenous energy sources, power consumption, world price changes, balance of...