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The estimation of probabilities of recessions/weak economic activity based on probit analyses indicates that the development of the German yield spread as well as the development of a weighted average of European yield spreads have been useful predictors for periods of sluggish economic...
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Opposing recommendations with respect to key sequencing issues characterize the controversy between the advocates of the orthodox approach and the political economy approach. It is suggested that the concept of credibility provides a fruitful link between both categories of proposals. Historical...
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Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to review the issues involved in determining the appropriate speed of adjustment and the sequencing of economic reforms, and to develop a checklist of key guidelines for policymakers as a basis for their decision-making process. Design/methodology/approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005081386
South Africa appears to share some of the characteristics (property price boom, easing of monetary policy, strong domestic demand growth) of asset price booms in industrial countries that were often followed by a period of weak growth. The international experience suggests that a number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082709
Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze the impact of a broad set of macroeconomic news on stock prices in the United States and Germany. With GARCH specifications we test five hypotheses and find that news on real economic activity has a significant impact on stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264061
This paper reviews the issues involved in determining the appropriate speed of adjustment and the sequencing of economic reforms, focusing on considerations relevant to policymakers. It points out that the debate between the protagonists of a high-speed approach and those favoring a gradualist...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264105
Formerly a favourite location for private capital inflows, Brazil was virtually cut off from further bank lending in the 1980s. The country's rating in secondary loan markets plummeted, and foreign direct investment dwindled. New external financing was replaced by an accumulation of interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647078
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