Independent realization is a commonly used shortcut for deriving forecast properties. It is also an unrealistic assumption in many empirical applications. In this paper we consider the effect of the assumption when deriving the properties of panel data forecasts. To do so, we derive and compare...

In this paper we derive an asymptotic theory for linear panel regression augmented with estimated common factors. We give conditions under which the estimated factors can be used in place of the latent factors in the regression equation. For the principal components estimate of the factor space...

A simple data-dependent filtering method is proposed before applying the Bai–Ng method to estimate the number of common factors in the conventional approximate factor model. The asymptotic justification is provided and the finite-sample performance is examined.

Factor analysis performed on a panel of 23 nominal exchange rates from January 1999 to December 2010 yields three common factors. This paper identifies the euro/dollar, Swiss-franc/dollar and yen/dollar exchange rates as empirical counterparts to these common factors. These empirical factors...

A new class of kernels for long-run variance and spectral density estimation is developed by exponentiating traditional quadratic kernels. Depending on whether the exponent parameter is allowed to grow with the sample size, we establish different asymptotic approximations to the sampling...

This paper develops an asymptotic theory for a general class of nonlinear non-stationary regressions, extending earlier work by Phillips and Hansen (1990) on linear coin-tegrating regressions.The model considered accommodates a linear time trend and stationary regressors, as well as multiple...

This paper deals with cross section dependence, homogeneity restrictions and small sample bias issues in dynamic panel regressions. To address the bias problem we develop a panel approach to median unbiased estimation that takes account of cross section dependence. The estimators given here...

It has been know since Phillips and Hansen (1990) that cointegrated systems can be consistently estimated using stochastic trend instruments that are independent of the system variables. A similar phenomenon occurs with deterministically trending instruments. The present work shows that such...

A number of recent papers have focused on the problem of testing for a unit root in the case where the driving shocks may be unconditionally heteroskedastic. These papers have, however, taken the lag length in the unit root test regression to be a deterministic function of the sample size,...