Deaves, Richard; Lüders, Erik; Schröder, Michael - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) - 2005
As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What?s more, more experienced forecasters have ?learned to be overconfident,? and hence are more...