A close examination of the MENA region economies reveals a number of fundamental sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. These include economic factors such as exchange rate instability, large public debt, current account deficits, and escalation of inflation. The political factors such as...

This paper analyses the comovement of the German and Austrian economies and the transmission of German shocks to Austria. Static and dynamic correlation measures show a strong comovement and a change of the relative position in time of these two economies. The transmission of German shocks to...

We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a method that allows us to identify demand from different groups of countries across the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is...

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

This paper quantifies the relative contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to the fluctuation of domestic output in six key Latin American (LA) countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Using quarterly data over the period 1980:1-2003:4, a multi-variate,...

Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. We then identify and quantify these spillovers using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor...

Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. We then identify and quantify these spillovers using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor...

This paper estimates equilibrium rates of macroeconomic aggregates for small open economies. We simultaneously identify the transitory and permanent components of output, inflation, the interest rate and the exchange rate by means of a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Realizations of the...

This paper studies the relative importance of including trend shocks and financial frictions whwn characterizing economic flutuations in a set of 12 emerging developed small open economies. We find that trend shocks, captured by permanet technology innovations, are relatively more important than...