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The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach
Spiliopoulos, Leonidas - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
Bayesian model averaging is applied to robustly ascertain the determinants of various output volatility measures … different effects on volatility. The ratio of govern- ment expenditure to GDP exhibited a significant positive relationship with … volatility and the trade share of GDP was positively related for a balanced dataset of developed and developing countries between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727913
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Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
Cakmakli, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - İktisat Bölümü, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - 2012
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009492766
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Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
Cakmakli, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - Tinbergen Institute - 2011
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369369
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Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
Cakmakli, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - Tinbergen Instituut - 2011
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markov switching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256392
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Forecasting economy with Bayesian autoregressive distributed lag model: choosing optimal prior in economic downturn
Bušs, Ginters - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009
Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005103392
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Shifting Drivers of Growth: Policy Implications for ASEAN-5
Tan, Kong Yam; Abeysinghe, Tilak; Tan, Khee Giap - In: Asian Economic Papers 14 (2015) 1, pp. 157-173
How the old saying “when the United States sneezes, the world catches a cold†holds true has been the subject of many research papers on global and country group business cycle synchronization and divergence. Instead of business cycle linkages, however, this paper examines the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011202922
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The Evolution of the Finnish Model in the 1990s: from Depression to High-tech Boom
Kiander, Jaakko - Valtion taloudellinen tutkimuskeskus (VATT), Government … - 2004
Finland has recently got much admiration due to economic success reflected in rankings of competitiveness, technology, education and economic growth. This success has largely been embodied in the growth of Nokia group and ICT sector. Yet the economic boom and the success of the Finnish high tech...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005546009
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Measures of compliance with sustainable development objectives adopted by Romania in the pre-and post-accession
Duduiala-Popescu, Lorena - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
Developing the National Strategy for Sustainable Development (SNDD) is the result of the obligation assumed by Romania, as a member of the European Union, in accordance with the objectives agreed at EU and methodological prescriptions of the European Commission. Defining element of this policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789542
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Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Economic Growth and Productivity Change in the EU, USA, Japan and Switzerland
Makieła, Kamil - In: Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and … 6 (2014) 3, pp. 193-216
The paper discusses Bayesian productivity analysis of 27 EU Member States, USA, Japan and Switzerland. Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Analysis and a twostage structural decomposition of output growth are used to trace sources of output growth. This allows us to separate the impacts of capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010942473
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A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Output Level and Growth in Poland and Western Economies
Osiewalski, J.; Koop, G.; Steel, M.F.J. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 1997
This paper uses Bayesian stochastic frontier methods to measure the productivity gap between Poland and Western countries that existed before the beginning of the main Polish economic reform. Using data for 20 Western economies, Poland and Yugoslavia (1980-1990) we estimate a translog stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011091638