This paper estimates the relation between bank profitability and economic downturns using a theoretical model that takes into account the bank's lending history as well as amortization and losses on outstanding loans. We focus on total bank profits and its components: net interest income, other...

This paper analyses information from survey data collected in the framework of the Eurosystem\'s Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) on patterns of firm-level adjustment to shocks. We document that the relative intensity and the character of price vs. cost and wage vs. employment adjustments in response...

Available evidence supports the view that growth is faster in more open economies. In order to analyze the implications of openness and growth on determinacy and learnability of worldwide rational expectations equilibria we develop a two-country New Keynesian model with growth. We analyze these...

This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the economic cycle to determine its usefulness as a reference guide for implementing the countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions in South Africa. The study finds that the common reference guide for implementing the...

After introducing and surveying the rules versus discretion debate in monetary policy, Eric Schaling then investigates the relationship between domestic monetary institutions and macroeconomic performance. The author compares central bank independence in twelve industrial countries –...

The theoretical argument for central bank independence is based on the idea that even if the government represents people's preferences over inflation and output it has an incentive to renege from prearranged plans to gain a short run boost to output. This incentive leads to higher than desired...

The U.S. economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard...

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - i.e. the central bank and private agents - who have different...

We study how determinacy and learnability of global rational expectations equilibrium may be affected by monetary policy in a simple, two country New Keynesian framework. We seek to understand how monetary policy choices may interact across borders to help or hinder the creation of a unique REE...

This paper extends the Svensson inflation forecast targeting framework with a convex Phillips curve. An asymmetric target rule is derived, which implies a higher level of nominal interest rates than the Svensson forward-looking version of the reaction function popularised by Taylor. Extending...