An electoral cycle created by governments is a phenomenon that seems to characterise, at least in some particular occasions and/or circumstances, the democratic economies. As it is generally accepted, the short-run electorally-induced fluctuations prejudice the long-run welfare. Since the very...

This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework useful to endogenously identify regimes where economies enter recessionary and expansionary phases synchronously, and regimes where economies are unsynchronized following independent business cycle phases. The reliability of the framework to track...

This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework to endogenously identify the following: (1) regimes where economies synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases; and (2) regimes where economies are unsynchronized, essentially following independent business cycles. The reliability of...

In this research we investigate possible existence of nonlinearities in business cycle fluctuations in France and United Kingdom (U.K.) real gross domestic product (GDP). We model the relationship between the real GDP in these countries using neural network linearity tests via in-sample as well...

The literature on electoral cycles has developed in two distinct phases. The first one considered the existence of non-rational (naive) voters whereas the second one considered fully rational voters. In our perspective, an intermediate approach is more interesting, i.e. one that considers...

This paper analyses synchronization in business cycles across the European Union (EU) since 1989. We include both old and new European Union members and countries which are currently negotiating accession, as well as potential European Union members. Our methodological approach is based on the...

This paper analyses synchronization in business cycles across the European Union (EU) since 1989. We include both old and new European Union members and countries which are currently negotiating accession, as well as potential European Union members. Our methodological approach is based on the...

This research studies possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US real GDP growth rates. Asymmetries in these countries are modeled using in-sample as well as jackknife out-of-sample forecasts approximated from artificial neural networks....

Depuis la récession économique mondiale de 2008-2009, les méthodes de prévision des cycles économiques ont été largement reconsidérées. Le dernier séminaire de l’International Institute of Forecasters, organisé par la Banque de France les 1er et 2 décembre 2011 à Paris, a été...

In the wake of the recent international economic recession in 2008-2009, forecasting methods designed to anticipate business cycles have been widely revisited. Recent innovative econometric methods were presented and widely discussed by academics and economists from international and national...