Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the...

Mit einem Markov-Switching-Modell können die monatlichen Veränderungen des ifo Geschäftsklimas in Wahrscheinlichkeiten für die beiden konjunkturellen Regime »Expansion« bzw. «Kontraktion« umgesetzt werden. Diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten – abgebildet in der ifo Konjunkturampel – liefern...

This report aims to highlight and raise awareness on the exposure and vulnerability of the energy sector to climate change. It also identifies adaptation options available to each source of energy generation as well as for the distribution and end use of electrical energy.

This paper proposes two new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicators developed by the Bank of France in order to follow, on a monthly basis, the French economic activity. The first one is an indicator which aims at detecting the turning points of the acceleration cycle while the second one...

This thesis aims to develop an alternative expectations model to the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) and adaptive-expectations models, which provides more accurate temporal predictive performance and more closely reflects recent advances in behavioural economics, the ‘science of...