It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics. In the environment that has prevailed for at least three decades now, it is not possible to understand business fluctuations and the corresponding analytical and policy challenges without understanding the...

The global financial crisis around 2008 and the subsequent great recession have forced attention on the relevance of economics. In particular, the core of economic theory suggests that money is neutral (affecting only the price level but not real economic variables) and hence finance and...

In the immediate aftermath of the current financial crisis in the United States the response has been to resolve small and medium size banks, while large banks experiencing financial trouble have been given both direct and indirect government support. This, however, has resulted in a number of...

This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS) for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an...

This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS) for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an...

This work develops an early warning system framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs, over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14...