presence of two effects that trade can have on the risk of civil conflicts: it may act as a deterrent if trade gains are put at … risk during civil wars but it may also act as an insurance if international trade provides a substitute to internal trade … most severe civil wars (those that destroy the largest amount of trade) but may increase the risk of lower scale conflicts. …

appropriate for economic modelling in Russia. We also show that post-crisis real sector developments in Russia could be accurately …

(Russia and Canada here) benefit from oil price shocks. For example, a large oil shock, leading to a price increase of 50 …

of the untested and atheoretical modeling assumptions imposed in earlier work to reduce model misspecification risk and …"view, but confirm the apparent benefits of incorporating measures of capacity utilisation and highlight the role of model risk …

globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies …

globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies …

during 1950-1973 and accelerated since 1973. Yet, in other regions of the world, country-specific shocks are still the …