Macroeconomic time series such as total unemployment or total industrial production concern data which are aggregated across regions, sectors, or age categories. In this paper we examine if forecasts for these aggregates can be improved by considering panel models for the disaggregate series. As...

La littérature sur l’instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l’instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

La littérature sur l’instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l’instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...

In Albers & Albers (Spring, 2013) we demonstrated that the historic development of U.S. real GNP, 1869-present, may be structured in recurring 14-year periods. A steady-state rate of growth of 3.4969% is thereby calculated, generating an increase in real GNP proportional to the famous “Golden...

En este artículo se presentan modelos binarios logit y probit para analizar el impacto de la inflación de los activos financieros (acciones, vivienda y crédito) sobre la probabilidad de desaceleración económica en Colombia, para el período 1990-2011. Se determina el plazo (corto o mediano)...

We search for evidence against the hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between inflation and growth rates for 1993-2012 Peruvian data. A family of dichotomous models provide the way to model the relationship between the those two variables' cycles. Given the acceleration/de-acceleration...

El presente estudio contrasta la hipótesis de una relación no lineal entre la inflación y el crecimiento de la actividad económica del Perú con datos que cubren el periodo enero 1993 - junio 2012. Se usa una familia de modelos dicotómicos que enfatizan la relación entre las fases de...

The paper focuses on the comparison of the direct and iterated AR predictors when Xt is a difference stationary process. In particular, it provides some useful results for comparing the efficiency of the two predictors and for extracting the trend from macroeconomic time series using the two...