learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment where subjects are incentivized to form accurate expectations about inflation and … greater forecast accuracy, coordination of expectations and macroeconomic stability. The benefits of this focal information …

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS … spread. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three measures of inflation expectations: the Livingston Survey …

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them … macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16 sentiment surveys of distinct respondent universes and employ the technique of … principal components analysis to extract the common signals from the surveys. I show that the ability of different population …

frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many … previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to … that there are benefits to using higher frequency measures of inflation expectations. Out of sample forecasts confirm the …

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …

The aim of this study is to compare directional expectations of credit volume and interest rate of the banking sector … interest rates. Using data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency’s Survey on expectations of bank managers, it is … observed that the quantified expectations capture the movement of the direction of the credit volume and interest rates …

market-based measures of expectations are similar to survey-based forecasts although the market-based measures somewhat more … in surveys of professional forecasts survive in equilibrium, and that these markets are remarkably well calibrated …