The aim of the present paper is to provide evidence on the internal efficiency of the Italian index option market and to verify the consistency of the latter notion of efficiency with the cross market one. To this end a model-free approach is taken, whereby strategies involving only options are...

Recent years witnessed commodity prices increases which have fostered research works on their predictability and a renewed interest of practitioners and policy-makers. The objective of this article is to test the predictive ability of futures prices on the underlying spot prices by taking corn,...

In this paper we examine the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT) using a newly constructed monthly database of zero coupon bond yields from the German Government bond market. We use data at the short end of the maturity spectrum (maturities less than two years) and employ two...

This paper tests the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates using new data for Germany. The German term structure appears to forecast future short-term interest rates surprisingly well, compared with previous studies with US data, while it has lower predictive power...

A major issue in the construction of implied trees is the no arbitrage property preservation. Within the literature on deterministic smile-consistent trees using forward induction, two major contributions are: Derman and Kani (1994) and Barle and Cakici (1998). The former proposes a methodology...

Standard methodologies for the derivation of implied trees from option prices are based on the validity of the put-call parity. Muzzioli and Torricelli (2002) propose a methodology which accounts for PCP violations. Based on this latter approach the present paper advances in two main directions....

The aim of this paper is to discuss the no-arbitrage condition in option implied trees based on forward induction and to propose a no-arbitrage test that rules out the negative probabilities problem and hence enhances the pricing performance. The no-arbitrage condition takes into account two...