Abstract This paper investigates the determinants of the ability of the yield spread to predict output fluctuations conditional on the short rate. In the model of the paper, this predictive power is contingent on the monetary authority's reaction function. In particular, expectations of monetary...

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to develop and test a mathematical method of deriving zero yield curve from market prices of government bonds. Design/methodology/approach – The method is based on a forward curve approximated by a linear (or piecewise constant) spline and should be...

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the pertinence of combining the positioning along the US presidential election cycle and the inversions of the yield curve as a guide for a market timing strategy on the S&P 500. These variables provide warning signals for either an abnormally...

The main characteristic of the French local tax system undoubtedly resides in a convoluted structure which impedes any progress in the development of tax competition between local authorities. On the contrary, recent legislative evolutions make obvious a trend of recentralization of the French...