Summary This paper applies multivariate linear discriminant analysis to classify West German business cycles from 1955 to 1994 into a four phase scheme (upswing, downswing, and upper/lower turning point phases). It describes the scheme as well as the selection of the classifying variables, and...

Summary Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as...

Zusammenfassung Diese Anmerkung zeigt, dass das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland einem trendstationären Prozess folgt. Dabei werden sowohl ökonometrische Tests, bei denen die Trendstationarität die Alternativhypothese ist, eingesetzt als auch solche, bei denen sie die...

Summary In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is used to decompose the balances of Ifo Business survey data into the cyclical, the seasonal and the irregular components, as well as the working day effect. The empirical results show that the total cycle consists of three subcycles with...

Abstract This paper studies the business cycle dynamics of income and wealth distributions in the context of the neoclassical growth model where agents are heterogeneous in initial wealth and non-acquired skills. Our economy admits a representative consumer which enables us to characterize...