Abstract This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, a support vector machine, and a non-parametric isotonic regression for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We also propose a four data set model validation and training...

Abstract Understanding how people make decisions from risky choices has attracted increasing attention of researchers in economics, psychology and neuroscience. While economists try to evaluate individual’s risk preference through mathematical modeling, neuroscientists answer the question by...

Abstract Equity basket correlation can be estimated both using the physical measure from stock prices, and also using the risk neutral measure from option prices. The difference between the two estimates motivates a so-called “dispersion strategy”. We study the performance of this strategy...

Abstract There is an increasing demand for models of multivariate time-series with time-varying and non-Gaussian dependencies. The available models suffer from the curse of dimensionality or from restrictive assumptions on the parameters and distributions. A promising class of models is that of...

Purpose: Interdependency among industries is vital for understanding economic structures and managing industrial portfolios. However, it is hard to precisely model the interconnecting structure among industries. One of the reasons is that the interdependencies show a different pattern in tail...