Summary Building on a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson framework with factor price rigidities, this paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between trade, technical progress, and the labor market in West Germany for the period from 1970 until 1990. The analysis builds on relative...

Summary A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable...

Industry affiliation provides an important channel through which trade liberalization can affect worker earnings and wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. This empirical study of the impact of the 1988-94 trade liberalization in Brazil on the industry wage structure suggests...

Abstract Seit Mitte der neunziger Jahre ist die Niedriglohnbeschäftigung in Deutschland stark gestiegen. Im europäischen Vergleich hat Deutschland mittlerweile einen der höchsten Werte unter den kontinentaleuropäischen Ländern. Gleichzeitig ist die Aufstiegsmobilität aus dem...

Zusammenfassung Die Existenz und die Entwicklung betriebsinterner Arbeitsmärkte ist von nicht zu unterschätzender Bedeutung für die Lohn- und Qualifikationsstruktur in einer Wirtschaft. Der vorliegende Beitrag betrachtet drei Aspekte betriebsinterner Arbeitsmärkte: Erstens ist - einhergehend...

It is a common assertion that, in a world with perfect markets and rational expectations, endogenous cycles could only arise under very unrealistic assumptions. This paper offers a short discussion on this claim and a review of the relevant contributions to the literature on deterministic...

This paper proposes a novel derivation of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) minimization problem which leads to a generalization of the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The main result is the development of a new filter to extract a localized maximum-likelihood estimate of the cycle from a series. This new...

Several recent studies show that seasonal variation and cyclical variation in unemployment are correlated. A common finding is that seasonality tends to differ across the business cycle stages of recessions and expansions. Since seasonal adjustment methods assume that the two sources of...

There is now a great deal of empirical evidence that business cycle fluctuations contain asymmetries. I focus on a theoretical model intended to capture the nonlinear behavior of aggregate output following a large negative shock. Nonlinearity introduced by Bayesian updating and an information...

The theoretical analysis of investment under uncertainty has been revolutionized over the last decade by the importation of ideas from finance. If investment is irreversible, there is a return to waiting. So although circumstances may suggest that it is profitable to invest, there may also be an...