Tourism is viewed increasingly as an essential sector to local, regional and national reconstruction and development for economies at various scales. However, its contribution on environmental quality degradation is more important. Indeed, any increase in the number of tourism requires amounts...

This paper provides rules for anticipating business-cycle recessions and recoveries for countries showing asymmetric cycle durations. Based on a Schumpeterian framework, we analyze business cycles as sums of short-, medium-, and long-term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved...

This paper aims at testing and modeling business-cycle asymmetries within a structural time-series framework, allowing for smooth transition in the parameters characterizing the cyclical component, namely, the damping factor and the frequency. An LM test of linearity is derived, and...

This paper reconsiders the conventional use of econometric models, especially identified vector autoregressive models, in guiding monetary policy. The main question I explore is whether these models are seriously flawed because they ignore asymmetries in the business cycles. Toward that end,...

Summary Following standard real business cycle theory, long run economic growth and short run business cycle fluctuations are attributed to a series of productivity shocks propagated by the economic system which is assumed to be in a rational expectations equilibrium. Characterizing the...

Zusammenfassung Mit dem Beitritt zur Europäischen Währungsunion geben die Mitgliedsländer (und ihre Zentralbanken) die Souveränität in geldpolitischen Fragen an die Europäische Zentralbank ab. Die Geldpolitik scheidet somit als Instrument der nationalen Wirtschaftspolitik aus. Wenn ihr...

Summary This paper analyzes whether the short-run behavior of output, the interest rate, and the price level in the U.S., Germany, France, the U.K., and Italy follows the qualitative predictions of the IS-LM model augmented by a long-run aggregate supply schedule. The use of the structural...

Summary The paper presents stylized facts of Euroland’s business cycle using aggregated data. The main results are: The determination of turning points in Euroland’s business cycle is not very sensitive to the detrending method used, although the level of the recent output gap depends on it....

Summary New Keynesian economics stresses the positive link between firms’ net worth, on the one hand, and the equilibrium level of credit granted and aggregate employment, on the other hand. The present paper argues that once money is introduced and adaptive inflation expectations are assumed,...

Zusammenfassung Diese Anmerkung zeigt, dass das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland einem trendstationären Prozess folgt. Dabei werden sowohl ökonometrische Tests, bei denen die Trendstationarität die Alternativhypothese ist, eingesetzt als auch solche, bei denen sie die...