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Job Insecurity, Reallocation and Technological Innovation in a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Vermeylen, Koen - In: Topics in Macroeconomics 5 (2005) 1
Abstract If workers anticipate a technological innovation, some workers may decide to quit their job and retrain themselves to acquire the skills which are needed by this new technology. However, this may facilitate the innovation and make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. This self-fulfilling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014588376
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Zur Rolle der Geldpolitik im Konjunkturzyklus / On the Role of Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle
Holstein, Michael - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 218 (1999) 3-4, pp. 346-360
Zusammenfassung Mit dem Beitritt zur Europäischen Währungsunion geben die Mitgliedsländer (und ihre Zentralbanken) die Souveränität in geldpolitischen Fragen an die Europäische Zentralbank ab. Die Geldpolitik scheidet somit als Instrument der nationalen Wirtschaftspolitik aus. Wenn ihr...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014608685
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Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles. An Assessment of Properties / Frühindikatoren der deutschen Konjunktur. Eine Beurteilung ihrer Eigenschaften
Fritsche, Ulrich; Stephan, Sabine - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 222 (2002) 3, pp. 289-315
Summary A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014608883
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Excess volatility? the Australian stock market from 1883 to 1999
Heaney, Richard - In: Managerial Finance 29 (2003) 10, pp. 76-94
Are share markets too volatile? While it is difficult to ignore share market volatility it is important to determine … whether volatility is excessive. This paper replicates the Shiller (1981) test as well as applying standard time series … excess volatility, time series analysis identifies a long‐run relationship between share market value and dividends …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014939689
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Income Taxation, Productive Government Expenditure and Stochastic Growth: On Conditions for an Optimal Policy and the Role of the Risk Premium
Clemens, Christiane - In: Topics in Macroeconomics 5 (2005) 1
Abstract This paper employs a stochastic endogenous growth model with productive government expenditure to analyze the macroeconomic effects of income taxation. We demonstrate that in the presence of capital and income risk the impact of taxation on consumption choice as well as on economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014588349
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Precautionary Saving and Income Uncertainty in Germany – New Evidence from Microdata
Bartzsch, Nikolaus - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 228 (2008) 1, pp. 5-24
Summary This paper uses microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP) to analyse the importance of precautionary saving under income uncertainty. In a cross-section of households, wealth in 2002 is regressed on alternative measures of income uncertainty. In addition to the usual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609180
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Entrepreneurial risk, investment, and innovation
In: Strategic Direction 29 (2013) 2
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015011943
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Labor Market Performance and Flexibility: Which Comes First?
Saltari, Enrico; Tilli, Riccardo - In: Contributions in Macroeconomics 4 (2004) 1
Abstract We use a matching framework to explore the hypothesis that firing costs are a decreasing function of labor market tightness. Conventional wisdom suggests that differences in employment protection legislation (EPL) cause differences in labor market performance. Our hypothesis suggests a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014588375
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Asian Reserves and the Dollar: Is Gradual Adjustment Possible?
Goyal, Ashima - In: Global Economy Journal 5 (2005) 3
Large dollar reserves in Asian EMEs accompany large U.S. fiscal and current account deficits. Analysis of strategic sales by Asian EMEs suggests that an attack on the dollar is not certain but is possible. A unique equilibrium where Asian EMEs sell their reserves does not exist but there are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014593108
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Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Reliably Detect Bubbles?
van Norden, Simon; Vigfusson, Robert - In: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics 3 (1998) 1
Our paper uses simulation methods to examine the size and power of regime-switching tests for bubbles. We find that even with several hundred observations, the tests show sometimes considerable size distortion. This distortion makes the tests conservative; they understate the significance of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014620809