Summary In pursuing their plans economic agents regularly have to adjust their pacing of orders, production, and deliveries in unanticipated ways. Information constraints turn many of these adjustments into myopic reactions to accelerations/decelerations observed in the activity level of...

Summary A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable...

Summary The rise of the East-German economy in the 1950s and 1960s and its decline in the 1970s and 1980s is difficult to explain by neoclassical economics. However; the observed life cycle may be explained by the inclusion of concepts from old and new institutional economics and from functional...

Abstract The objective of this paper is to study when and how much labor and capital income of heirs respond to inheritances. We estimate fixed effects models following direct heirs, inheriting in 2004, during the years 2000--2008 using Swedish panel data. Our first main result is that the more...

Purpose “The latest available cross-country data presented in the PEPPER V Report (Lowitzsch and Hashi, 2024) can be viewed by examining EFP in and of itself as an isolated subject or it can be viewed in a much wider set of contexts. Widening the lens in order to examine EFP in the context of...

It is a common assertion that, in a world with perfect markets and rational expectations, endogenous cycles could only arise under very unrealistic assumptions. This paper offers a short discussion on this claim and a review of the relevant contributions to the literature on deterministic...

This paper proposes a novel derivation of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) minimization problem which leads to a generalization of the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The main result is the development of a new filter to extract a localized maximum-likelihood estimate of the cycle from a series. This new...

Several recent studies show that seasonal variation and cyclical variation in unemployment are correlated. A common finding is that seasonality tends to differ across the business cycle stages of recessions and expansions. Since seasonal adjustment methods assume that the two sources of...

There is now a great deal of empirical evidence that business cycle fluctuations contain asymmetries. I focus on a theoretical model intended to capture the nonlinear behavior of aggregate output following a large negative shock. Nonlinearity introduced by Bayesian updating and an information...