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Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles. An Assessment of Properties / Frühindikatoren der deutschen Konjunktur. Eine Beurteilung ihrer Eigenschaften
Fritsche, Ulrich; Stephan, Sabine - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 222 (2002) 3, pp. 289-315
Summary A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014608883
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Excess volatility? the Australian stock market from 1883 to 1999
Heaney, Richard - In: Managerial Finance 29 (2003) 10, pp. 76-94
Are share markets too volatile? While it is difficult to ignore share market volatility it is important to determine … whether volatility is excessive. This paper replicates the Shiller (1981) test as well as applying standard time series … excess volatility, time series analysis identifies a long‐run relationship between share market value and dividends …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014939689
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The Impact of Inheritances on Heirs' Labor and Capital Income
Elinder, Mikael; Erixson, Oscar; Ohlsson, Henry - In: The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 12 (2012) 1
Abstract The objective of this paper is to study when and how much labor and capital income of heirs respond to inheritances. We estimate fixed effects models following direct heirs, inheriting in 2004, during the years 2000--2008 using Swedish panel data. Our first main result is that the more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014586925
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Income and Wealth Distributions Along the Business Cycle: Implications from the Neoclassical Growth Model
Maliar, Lilia; Maliar, Serguei; Mora, Juan - In: Topics in Macroeconomics 5 (2005) 1
Abstract This paper studies the business cycle dynamics of income and wealth distributions in the context of the neoclassical growth model where agents are heterogeneous in initial wealth and non-acquired skills. Our economy admits a representative consumer which enables us to characterize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014588389
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Capital-Skill Complementarity and Rigid Relative Wages: Inference from the Business Cycle
Skaksen, Jan R; Sorensen, Anders - In: Topics in Macroeconomics 5 (2005) 1
Abstract The relative demand for skills has increased considerably in many OECD countries during recent decades. This development is potentially explained by capital-skill complementarity and high growth rates of capital equipment. When production functions are characterized by capital-skill...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014588441
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Classification of West German Business Cycles 1955-1994 / Klassifikation westdeutscher Konjunkturzyklen 1955 - 1994
Heilemann, Ullrich; Münch, Heinz Josef - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 219 (1999) 5-6, pp. 632-656
Summary This paper applies multivariate linear discriminant analysis to classify West German business cycles from 1955 to 1994 into a four phase scheme (upswing, downswing, and upper/lower turning point phases). It describes the scheme as well as the selection of the classifying variables, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014608733
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Myopic Behavior and Cycles in Aggregate Output. A Note on the Role of Correlated Quantity Adjustments / Myopisches Verhalten und der Konjunkturzyklus. Bemerkungen zur Rolle korreli...
Witt, Ulrich; Sun, Guang-Zhen - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 222 (2002) 3, pp. 366-376
zu einer starken Auslastung des Bedienungssystems kommt, ein Aspekt, der in der makroökonomischen Theorie der Voll- und …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014608887
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Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany / Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 225 (2005) 1, pp. 22-43
Summary Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609025
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Zur Evolution des deutschen Konjunkturzyklus 1958-2004 / On the Evolution of German Business Cycles 1958-2004
Heilemann, Ullrich; Schuhr, Roland - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 228 (2008) 1, pp. 84-109
Summary This paper examines changes of the (West) German business cycle from 1958 to 2004. It starts with a multivariate linear discriminant analysis (LDA) based decomposition of the cycle into 4 phases (upswing, upper turning point, downswing, lower turning point). After examining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609184
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Konjunktur und Generationenbilanz – eine Analyse anhand des HP-Filters / Business Cycle Effects on Generational Accounting – An Analysis using the HP-Filter
Benz, Ulrich; Hagist, Christian - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 228 (2008) 4, pp. 299-316
Summary Generational accounting is - given the future demographic developments in OECD countries - an established tool to quantify the fiscal situation of public coffers. However, as all economic methods dealing with future developments it has critical points. One in particular is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609187