A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model implements the yield curve differentials between EUR and the US as exogenous factors. Functional principal component analysis allows us to use the information of basically the...

We advocate a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we empirically test volatility dynamics of the tenyear sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields...

This paper presents a new approach for analysing the recent development of EMU sovereign bond spreads. Based on a GARCH-in-mean model originally used in the exchange rate target zone literature, spreads are decomposed into a risk premium, an expected loss component and a liquidity premium....