Paluszynski, Radoslaw; Stefanidis, Georgios - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 14 (2023) 1, pp. 277-308
Quantitative models of sovereign default predict that governments reduce borrowing during recessions to avoid debt crises. A prominent implication of this behavior is that the resulting interest rate spread volatility is counterfactually low. We propose that governments borrow into debt crises...