The market for credit default swaps (CDS) on US government debt is remarkably thin. Relative to the amount of reference debt, the market for CDS on USA is an order of magnitude smaller than the markets for CDS on other high-grade government borrowers, such as Germany and the UK. A common theory...

As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in activity across the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market and infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these market prices. Beginning in January 2023, we document a significant increase in U.S. CDS trading activity and...

Past cycles of sovereign lending and default suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Surveying the sovereign bond market, the author provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign...