This paper studies the real effects of an exogenous UK tax change in recessions and expansions. The tax shock is identified via the measure proposed by Cloyne (2013). Combining local projection techniques (Jordà, 2005) with smooth transition regressions (Granger and Teräsvirta, 1994), tax...

This paper studies the main channels through which interest rate normalization has fiscalimplications in the United States. While unexpected inflation reduces the real value ofgovernment liabilities, a rising policy rate increases government financing needs because ofhigher interest payments and...

An important tool in the analysis of fiscal policy is the distinction between structural and cyclical components of the budget balance. This paper describes work undertaken to re-estimate and re-specify the elasticities underlying the Economics Department's calculations of cyclically-adjusted...

This paper presents a detailed analysis of fiscal frameworks across the six Western Balkan economies utilizing a newly compiled dataset based on the European Commission's Fiscal Governance Database. The analysis reveals that although all six Western Balkan countries have implemented some form of...

The paper presents time series for Danish general government net lending in the period 1875-2003 and analyses the long-term term fiscal development in Denmark. Even though Denmark today has one of the largest public sectors in Europe, relatively speaking, the Danish general government's deficit...

The political budget cycle (PBC) literature argues that governments expand deficits in election years. However, what happens when an economic downturn is expected? Will the government allow the deficit to expand even further, or will it resort to spending cuts and tax increases? When voters...

The budget dispute between Italy and the European Commission in 2018 gave new impetus for the debate about the reliability of output gap estimation methods and their use for calculating structural budget balances. In this paper we review the main properties of the mainstream approaches and...

The budget dispute between Italy and the European Commission in 2018 gave new impetus for the debate about the reliability of output gap estimation methods and their use for calculating structural budget balances. In this paper we review the main properties of the mainstream approaches and...

Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of...

The budget dispute between Italy and the European Commission in 2018 gave new impetus for the debate about the reliability of output gap estimation methods and their use for calculating structural budget balances. In this paper we review the main properties of the mainstream approaches and...