This paper examines the history of econometrics through a particular case study - modelling the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. It focuses on the questions of what econometric tools modellers would choose to model the tradeoff, how their choices helped shape the ways that they...

This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series...

"Haavelmo's 1944 monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics, is widely acclaimed as the manifesto of econometrics. This book challenges Haavelmo's probability approach, shows how its use is delivering defective and inefficient results, and argues for a paradigm shift in econometrics...

This paper is prepared for the forthcoming publication of Frisch's 1930 Yale lecture notes, A Dynamic Approach to Economic Theory: The Yale Lectures of Ragnar Frisch (details at: http://www.routledgeeconomics.com/books/A-Dynamic-Approach-to-Economic-Theory-isbn9780415564090). As the lecture...