Nigeria is an exporter of crude oil, and hence its revenue typically benefits from a positive oil price shock. However, it simultaneously imports gasoline, which also increases in response to positive oil price shocks. As a result, the net import bill combines these two effects. I use a model to...

Als Folge des Ölpreisrekordhochs 2008 wurde sowohl in der allgemeinen Öffentlichkeit als auch in der akademischen Welt über die Ursachen dieses Anstiegs debattiert. Die Ausgabe der Reihe »Kurz zum Klima« fasst diese Diskussion zusammen und verweist auf einen Aspekt, der zwar an sich...

There is an increasing tension between the Iranian Government and the west on an increasingly likely European oil embargo and the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. The main question is: What will happen to the international oil prices in the case of shocks in the flow of Iranian oil...

The relevance of oil in the world economy explains why considerable effort has been devoted to the development of different types of econometric models for oil price forecasting. Several specifications have been proposed in the economic literature. Some are based on financial theory and...

Als Folge des Ölpreisrekordhochs 2008 wurde sowohl in der allgemeinen Öffentlichkeit als auch in der akademischen Welt über die Ursachen dieses Anstiegs debattiert. Die Ausgabe der Reihe »Kurz zum Klima« fasst diese Diskussion zusammen und verweist auf einen Aspekt, der zwar an sich...

The paper at hand presents results of a model-based scenario analysis on the economic implications in the next decade of an oil peak today and significantly decreasing oil production in the coming years. For that the extraction paths of oil and other fossil fuels given in LBST (2010) are...

We use a welfare-based intertemporal stochastic optimization model and historical data to estimate the size of the optimal intergenerational and liquidity funds and the corresponding resource dividend available to the government of the Canadian province Alberta. To first-order of approximation,...

The sustainability of the Nigerian fiscal deficit along with the role of the dynamics of government revenues and spending in adjusting the size of the deficit is examined using annual data from 1961 to 2014. After allowing for structural breaks, the study finds evidence of a cointegration...

This study examines the relationship between crude oil price and financial sector intermediary development in Nigeria over the period 1975-2011, using the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration analysis. Four measures of financial intermediary development are used including an...