Departing from Hotelling's assumption of fixed and known reserves, in this paper I develop an economic model of additions to proven reserves that explicitly incorporates the effects of expected resource price, cumulative reserves development, and technological progress on reserves additions. The...

Seitdem sich im Lauf des letzten Jahres die Rohölpreise nahezu halbiert haben, wird viel darüber spekuliert, wie deren zukünftiger Verlauf sein könnte. In seinem Kommentar befasst sich Georg Erber, European Productivity Research Center, mit dem Einfluss der OPEC und der USA auf die Erdölpreise.

In seinem Kommentar diskutiert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, Universität Duisburg- Essen, die Gründe für die aktuellen Ölpreisschwankungen und schlägt Maßnahmen zur Abmilderung des Risikos vor, das durch den großen Einbruch der Ölpreise für die politische und wirtschaftliche Stabilität in...

Das Statistische Bundesamt veröffentlicht neben dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt regelmäßig auch den Realwert des Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Die beiden Schlüsselindikatoren unterscheiden sich um den Terms-of-Trade-Effekt. Der Beitrag präsentiert aktuelle vierteljährliche Ergebnisse. Sie zeigen,...

The Hotelling rule argues that the price for a nonrenewable resource adjusts to the shadow value of the resource, reflecting the remaining availability of the resource. We empirically test the Hotelling rule on the effect of unanticipated oil field discoveries. We do not find evidence for a...

The Hotelling rule argues that the price for a non-renewable resource adjusts to the shadow value of the resource, reflecting its remaining availability. This study provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. It investigates whether the price of crude oil does adjust to unexpected news about...

This paper considers the question of whether changes in persistence have occurred during the long-run evolution of U.S. prices of the non-renewable energy resources crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. Our main contribution is to allow for a structural break when testing for a break in...

The Hotelling rule argues that the price for a non-renewable resource adjusts to the shadow value of the resource, reflecting its remaining availability. This study provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. It investigates whether the price of crude oil does adjust to unexpected news about...

This paper shows that a seemingly simple assumption, regarding the time horizon of economic agents, can reconcile the puzzling long run price dynamics of exhaustible resources such as oil, gas and metals. It does so by exploring the possibility that economic agents use a rolling planning...

We estimate a dominant firm-competitive fringe model for the crude oil market using quarterly data on oil prices for the 1986-2009 period. All estimated structural parameters have the expected sign and are significant. We find that OPEC exercised market power during the sample period....