Previous research shows that volatility in oil prices has tended to depress output, as measured by non-residential investment and GDP. This is interpreted as evidence in support of the theory of real options in capital budgeting decisions, which predicts that uncertainty about, for example,...

This paper investigates the exposure of industry level portfolios to oil price shocks. Our paper utilizes the Campbell (1991) decomposition of stock returns based on a log-linear approximation to the discounted present value relation while allowing for time varying expected returns. The results...

The failure of decreases in oil prices to produce expansions that mirror the contractions associated with higher oil prices has been a topic of considerable interest. We investigate for the G-7 one explanation for this feature - the role of uncertainty about oil prices. In particular, we examine...

There has recently been considerable interest in the potential adverse effects associated with excessive uncertainty in energy futures markets. Theoretical models of investment under uncertainty predict that increased uncertainty will tend to induce firms to delay investment. These models are...