This paper suggests that an optimal local content policy in the context of flawed institutions is a more minimal one than those typically pursued by developing countries with recently discovered petroleum reserves. We argue that local content requirements need to be seen as a public expenditure...

When natural gas prices are subject to periodic decoupling from oil prices, for instance due to peak-load pricing, conventional linear models of price dynamics such as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) can lead to erroneous inferences about cointegration relationships, price adjustments...

In this paper we investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and natural gas in the UK. We develop a model where relative prices can move between pricing-regimes; markets switch between being decoupled and integrated. Our model endogenously accounts for periods where oil and natural...

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) retail electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...

This paper is concerned with the role of oil and gas in the development of the global economy. Its focus is on the context in which oil and gas producers in both established and developing countries must frame their policies in order to optimize the benefits of producing such resources. It...