This paper aims to analyze the time-varying relationship among electricity, fossil fuel prices and exchange rate in Turkey based on quarterly data for the period 1988Q1 and 2016Q1. The time-varying responses imply that impact of fossil fuel prices and exchange rate on the electricity prices...

Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel, oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the sources of the recent decline in prices, and examines its macroeconomic, financial and policy implications. The recent drop...

By convention, the petroleum industry relies on thermal equivalence to summarize the results of upstream oil and gas operations — measuring outputs in terms of barrels of “oil equivalent.” This despite the fact that the two commodities trade at nothing like thermal parity. Drawing on a...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the global market for crude oil and oil futures risk premium at the aggregate level. It offers empirical evidence on whether the compensation for risk required by the speculators depends on the type of the structural shock of interest....

This study analyses oil price movements through the lens of an agnostic random forest model, which is based on 1,000 regression trees. It shows that this highly disciplined, yet flexible computational model reduces in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by 65% relative to a standard linear...

This paper examines the role of inventories in refiners' gasoline production and develops a structural model of the relationship between crude oil prices and inventories. Using data on inventories and prices of oil futures, I show that convenience yields decrease at a diminishing rate as...

This paper is concerned with the role of oil and gas in the development of the global economy. Its focus is on the context in which oil and gas producers in both established and developing countries must frame their policies in order to optimize the benefits of producing such resources. It...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the global market for crude oil and oil futures risk premium at the aggregate level. It off ers empirical evidence on whether the compensation for risk required by the speculators depends on the type of the structural shock of interest....

In this work, we propose an analysis of the global market for crude oil based on a revised version of the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model introduced by Kilian and Murphy (2014). On this respect, we replace the global proxy for above-ground crude oil inventories with the oil...

The authors demonstrate that the United States profits handsomely in all circumstances by imposing an embargo on imports of foreign crude oil. The US removes its exposure to foreign oil supply shocks and recovers deadweight lost producers surplus. The embargo plan will lead to greater domestic...