The rapid rise in the price of crude oil between 2004 and the summer of 2006 are the subject of debate. This paper investigates the factors that might have contributed to the oil price increase in addition to demand and supply for crude oil, by expanding a model for crude oil prices to include...

At present, oil markets appear to be behaving in a fashion similar to that in the late 1970s and early 1980s when oil prices rose sharply over an extended period. Furthermore, like at that time, analysts are split on whether such increases will persist or reverse, and if so by how much. The...

Departing from Hotelling's assumption of fixed and known reserves, in this paper I develop an economic model of additions to proven reserves that explicitly incorporates the effects of expected resource price, cumulative reserves development, and technological progress on reserves additions. The...

Der Preis für Rohöl hat sich seit der Jahrtausendwende erheblich erhöht. Für Deutschland wurde der Preisanstieg durch die Aufwertung des Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar leicht gedämpft. Aus Sicht der Verbraucher macht sich der Ölpreisanstieg besonders deutlich an den Tankstellen bemerkbar....

Der Preis für Rohöl ist Anfang des Jahres 2016 noch einmal deutlich gesunken. Modellsimulationen zeigen, dass der größte positive Effekt beim Privaten Konsum zu erwarten ist. Untersucht wurde hierbei, welche gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte resultieren würden, wenn eine Revision des für das...

Bis zum Amtsantritt von Gary Gensler ging die US Commodity Futures Trading Commission von einem geringen Einfluss der Spekulanten auf den Rohölpreis aus, während nun eine Neubewertung stattfindet.Dieser Artikel misst die Aktivität der Spekulanten mit Hilfe von Variablen der wöchentlichen...

This article discusses the influence of speculators in the futures market on crude oil prices. The results suggest the dispersion in beliefs influences both crude oil prices and price volatility.

This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil demand and supply shocks. The results show that...

The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves...

Over the past 10 years, financial firms have increased the size of their positions in the oil futures market. At the same time, oil prices have increased dramatically. The conjunction of these developments has led some observers to argue that financial speculation caused the run-up in oil...