Should an investor enter into long-term positions in oil futures contracts? In answering this question, this paper will cover the following three considerations: (1) the case for structural positions in crude oil futures contracts; (2) useful indicators for avoiding crash risk; and (3) financial...

In U.S. dollar terms, crude oil prices increased 525% from the end-of-2001 through July 31st, 2008. Was this rally yet another speculative bubble? Specifically, has the oil rally been based on speculative excess rather than fundamental supply-and-demand factors? In summary, this paper argues...

Even though there were numerous plausible explanations for the oil-price rally that culminated in July of 2008, there remains much uncertainty on how much to ascribe this rally to speculation, given the lack of transparency in the global oil markets. Was there excessive speculation in the oil...

Is roll yield still a useful concept in evaluating crude oil futures markets? This is a timely question because of:(a) skepticism on the benefits of roll yield; and (b) the dramatic drop in oil prices has led investors to question whether crude-oil-futures positions deserve a role in a...

This article argues that it is plausible that there are two fundamental metrics that could be useful for deciding upon crude oil futures positions: (1) whether there are ample inventories or not; and (2) whether spare capacity is at pinch-point levels or not. The article will further argue that...

Can U.S. shale producers be regarded as the new swing producers in the crude oil markets? This brief paper will address this question from both a physical-oil-market standpoint and from an energy-financing standpoint. The article will conclude that basically the answer is no unless one adopts a...

Oil prices are usually influenced by a number of factors. But are there times when OPEC spare capacity has been the most important factor for driving oil prices? This article will argue the answer is yes, and we will discuss the circumstances when this has been the case in the past

With concerns on inflation flaring up, there has been renewed interest in potentially including commodities in diversified portfolios. This article builds off prior research in examining which commodities to include and in what size. The article briefly reviews the relevant literature and...