Repeated oil price spikes have generated a great deal of controversy about the role played by speculation in derivatives markets. A number of analysts have suggested that the speculative positions of financial investors played a major part in the 2008 oil-price hike. In contrast, some economists...

We examine quarterly oil price forecasts from the Survey of Professional forecasters by the European Central Bank. We find statistical evidence at short forecast horizons that oil price volatility observed ex post explains ex-ante disagreement between oil price forecasters of the ECB's...