Júlio, Paulo; Esperança, Pedro M. - Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos (GEE), Ministério da … - 2012
We evaluate the quality of OECD's and IMF's forecasts for real GDP growth and for GDP expenditure components. We use a scaled statistic to compare the prediction models' performance across GDP components with different volatilities and decompose the GDP forecast error into the corresponding...