We present a robust Generalized Empirical Likelihood estimator and confidence region for the parameters of an autoregression that may have a heavy tailed error, and the error may be conditionally heteroscedastic of unknown form. The estimator exploits two transformations for heavy tail...

Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting generally relies on a parametric density function of portfolio returns that ignores higher moments or assumes them constant. In this paper, we propose a new simple approach to estimation of a portfolio VaR. We employ the Gram-Charlier expansion (GCE) augmenting...