Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Assessing the extreme events is crucial in financial risk management. All risk managers and financial institutions want to know the risk of their portfolio under rare events scenarios. We illustrate a multivariate market risk estimating method which employs Monte Carlo simulations to estimate...

The major aim of this empirical study is to estimate the volatility time series returns for a cluster of international stock markets, such as: Switzerland, Austria, China and Hong Kong. The paper demonstrates statistical modeleling in order to capture volatility clusters and changes in long and...

We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on economic activity and welfare. In the first part of the paper, the GARCH-SVARmodel is applied to measure empirically the effect of the conditional exogenous exchange rate...