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We investigate a model in which we connect slowly time varying unconditional long-run volatility with short …-run conditional volatility whose representation is given as a semi-strong GARCH (1,1) process with heavy tailed errors. We focus on … robust estimation of both long-run and short-run volatilities. Our estimation is semiparametric since the long-run volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009719116
Semi-parametric estimators for non-Gaussian GARCH processes based on Feasible Weighted Least Squares (FWLS) are proposed. The estimators are consistent and do not require the specification of the innovations distribution family. The FWLS estimators incorporate information related to the skewness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012978175
We propose a multiplicative component model for intraday volatility. The model consists of a seasonality factor, as … volatility, while the latter two account for the impact of the state of the limit order book, utilizing an additive structure … non-linearities in the relationship between the limit order book and subsequent return volatility and underlines the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012990974
The identification of asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity is often based on sample cross-correlations between past and squared observations. In this paper we analyse the effects of outliers on these cross-correlations and, consequently, on the identification of asymmetric volatilities.We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458810
We present a robust Generalized Empirical Likelihood estimator and confidence region for the parameters of an autoregression that may have a heavy tailed error, and the error may be conditionally heteroscedastic of unknown form. The estimator exploits two transformations for heavy tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035987
This paper presents a variety of tests of volatility spillover that are robust to heavy tails generated by large errors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091629
This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the linear and nonlinear time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient parametric models, such as AR or GARCH, whose coefficients...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003635965
Local linear fitting is a popular nonparametric method in nonlinear statistical and econometric modelling. Lu and Linton (2007) established the point wise asymptotic distribution (central limit theorem) for the local linear estimator of nonparametric regression function under the condition of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135542
We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies … computationally attractive and feasible for large dimensions. We demonstrate its strong predictive potential for financial volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014051065
and the specification form of the volatility process when modelling volatility with the parametric GARCH family models …. This paper examines the Chinese stock market volatility and the asymmetric effects in the Chinese stock volatility by a … empirical result from the GAMNP model demonstrates better performance for the volatility forecasts, particularly in the out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150228