Showing 1 - 10 of 599
forecasting-volatility models, comparing their performance (in terms of Value at Risk, VaR) under the assumptions of jumping …Forecasting-volatility models typically rely on either daily or high frequency (HF) data and the choice between these … prices and leverage effects for volatility. Findings suggest that GARJI model provides more accurate VaR measures for the S …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011730304
. Results show individual models excel in forecasting VaR at a 0.975 confidence level, while combined methods outperform at 0 …This study contrasts GARCH models with diverse combined forecast techniques for Commodities Value at Risk (VaR … methods such as mean or lowest VaR yield optimal results, highlighting their efficacy. This study contributes by offering a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014445140
these two family forecasting-volatility models, comparing their performance (in terms of Value at Risk, VaR) under the …Forecasting volatility models typically rely on either daily or high frequency (HF) data and the choice between these …-data models at 5% and 1% VaR level. Specifically, independently from the data frequency, allowing for jumps in price (or providing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011674479
With the aim of constructing predictive distributions for daily returns, we introduce a new Markov normal mixture model in which the components are themselves normal mixtures. We derive the restrictions on the autocovariances and linear representation of integer powers of the time series in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604877
Bayesian inference in a time series model provides exact, out-of-sample predictive distributions that fully and coherently incorporate parameter uncertainty. This study compares and evaluates Bayesian predictive distributions from alternative models, using as an illustration five alternative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605015
A prediction model is any statement of a probability distribution for an outcome not yet observed. This study considers the properties of weighted linear combinations of n prediction models, or linear pools, evaluated using the conventional log predictive scoring rule. The log score is a concave...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605063
shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291928
new model achieves higher forecasting performance compared to a standard DCC model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330971
wholesale power markets have only recently been deregulated. We introduce the weather factor into well-known forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325407
wholesale power markets have only recently been deregulated. We introduce the weather factor into well-known forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372511